Is mandating mitigation fiscally prudent?

Levee failure California Delta 2004 Photo: California Dept of Water Resources

A good friend offered this comment on my recent blog on San Francisco's push to mandate mitigation:

NY did not mandate mitigation & Congress just rewarded them with BILLIONS. Not fiscally prudent to mandate/mitigate.

His point is well-taken and highlights one of the major problems with mitigation – it's ultimately about money (well, what isn't?). Our programs provide very limited funding for pre-disaster mitigation – much of our funding is provided after the fact which limits the benefits from mitigation. From one prespective it would seem fiscally prudent to wait to fund mitigation until you can use Federal dollars instead of local tax dollars.

However, such thinking ignores the opportunity cost of waiting until after a disaster to take action to reduce your losses. A 2005 study by the Multi-hazard Mitigation Council of the National Institute of Building Sciences, Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from Mitigation Activities, found that ever dollar invested in mitigation saves society $4. The study also found that every Federal dollar invested in FEMA mitigation grants saved $3.65. This changes the cost benefit analysis consderably.

However, no matter how logical the argument for pre-disaster mitigation, we are still faced with the attitude that deciding to spend a dollar now in times of tight budgets is reality – potential savings are theoretical and besides, we all know "that won't happen here!" It's this same thinking that has resisted mitigation efforts on the East Coast barrier islands or the levees in California. For some reason, it always seems easier to fund rebuilding after the fact than to fund pre-disaster mitigation.

So it may well be fiscally prudent to bet on surviving a disaster and getting the Feds to pay but I think it's a sucker's bet and extremely short-sighted. Even if you win, you lose.

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Join me this Wednesday on EM Forum to talk about planning assumptions

San Francisco proposes mandatory mitigation

Typical San Francisco soft-story building. Photo: Lea Suzuki – The Chronicle

One of the problems with retrofitting properties to make them safer is motivating people to actually do the work. Building code changes are generally not retroactive which means that a building owner need not comply with new standards unless remodeling projects are extensive enough to trigger the application of the new code.

Case in point is the City of San Francisco which for years has worked to eliminate soft-story buildings that are prone to collapse in an earthquake. (Soft-story buildings are wood-framed, multi-story units that have either a garage or retail space that result in the removal of some of the building supports.) Since the program has been voluntary and the incentives to comply minimal, very few building owners have been willing to foot the expensive retrofit that involves installing a reinforcing steel frame. The City estimates that retrofitting the 2,800 most vulnerable buildings would cost $260 million but could save as much as $1.5 billion in earthquake damages.

Mayor Ed Lee has taken the unusual step of submitting legislation that would mandate the retrofitting of buildings of at least three stories and containing five or more dwelling units. Surprisingly for San Francisco (where politics is a blood sport), the Mayor seems to have the support of the Board of Supervisors (which functions as our city council) and the San Francisco Apartment Association, which represents landlords, even though funding details have not been worked out. Tenants groups are not yet onboard over concerns that the costs will be passed directly to tenants in a city where rents are already astronomical.

Mandating mitigation is politically risky and there's sure to be a lot of pushback on the Mayor's proposal. The success of the project will rise or fall on the answer to the age-old question, "Who pays?" There will no doubt be considerable discussion and compromise. But it is the right thing to do and it seems that the elected officials in San Francisco are willing to step up to the task.

For more information, see the story in the San Francisco Chronicle.

Zero tolerance doesn’t work

Does your organization have a "zero tolerance" policy? Whether it's for drugs or harassment or violence is a bit irrelevant. Organizations create such policies to demonstrate that they take the particular problem seriously and will take whatever measures are necessary to prevent or curtail it. However, there's a problem with zero tolerance policies. Blind enforcement sooner or later produces the potential significant reputation damage.

A zero tolerance policy is supposed to take the guesswork out of decision-making when confronted with the inappropriate behavior. Instead it can seriously limit managerial discretion by making facts irrelevant and disallowing common sense.

Case in point is the recent suspension of a 5-year old student at school in Pennsylvania for making "terrorist threats". While the article I read on ABC News website did not specify the nature of the threat, it apparently involved a shootout with a Hello Kitty bubble gun blower. Fortunately, the young lady did not have the bubble gun with her at school or I suspect she would have been arrested for having a weapon on school property. Instead she was suspended for 10 days and forced to undergo a psychological evaluation (which showed that she was perfectly normal and posed no threat to her classmates). She now has a permanent entry on her school records which affects her ability to transfer schools and that may result in a lawsuit.

What's wrong with this picture? Zero tolerance for weapons and threats of violence sounds good but surely an adult should be able to distinguish between school yard play and a real threat. Even if there seemed to be a problem, a word to the parents might have been sufficient. Instead, I suspect that inflexible policies mandated the school officials' actions and created a reputational crisis out of what should have been a minor incident. 

By limiting decision-making and forbidding the application of common sense zero tolerance policies can do more harm than good. They are an attempt to take the easy way out by making all situations equal. The simple fact is that all situations are not equal and administrators must be able to base their actions on the circumstances of each. As is so often the case in crisis management, one size does not fit all.

Who is really responsible for risky building practices?

Photo: Mario Tama, Getty Images

It was interesting to see the emphasis on climate change in President Obama's inaugural address. A few years ago those of us who expressed concern over the predictions were viewed with considerable scepticism. Now we may be seeing the beginning of a national debate that will focus not on the reality of climate change but rather on what we're going to do about it.

One issue is already surfacing and it is the same issue we face after any major disaster: do we rebuild or cut our losses? In an excellent article (Fiercer storms are coming – is it wise to build in their path?) in last Sunday's San Francisco Chronicle, Carolyn Lochhead considers how government has contributed to community vulnerability by subsidizing risky behavior and encouraging building in disaster-prone areas. The rush to restore infrastructure immediately after disaster ensures that debates over whether or not to rebuild are largely put on hold until it is too late. In many cases, construction and continued rebuilding in at-risk areas not only creates a drain on taxpayer dollars but actually strips away the natural defenses that would reduce potential damage to other parts of the communities.

But the other side of the coin is the impact on communities if we do not rebuild after a disaster. Objectively, one can argue that homes on barrier islands should not be rebuilt but who pays for the cost of relocation? How do you tell a homeowner who has built according to local building codes and bought insurance subsidized by the government that they are now responsible for paying for damages? What is lost when a community such as the Ninth Ward in New Orleans is scattered across the country and not allowed to rebuild?  These are the questions that makes mitigation such a complex issue.

I believe it high time we had this debate about personal responsibility for risky behavior. It will not be popular but in the light of the increasing risk to coastal and riverine communities, we need to rethink how we build and how we rebuild after disaster.

Costa Concordia anniversary shows little sympathy for survivors.

Last Sunday was the one year anniversary of the capsizing of the Costa Concordia off the western coast of Italy. As you may recall, the cruise ship was sailing too close to shore, struck a rock, and rolled on it's side, killing 32 people. The ceremony, a tribute to those who died, was by all accounts a solemn and meaningful occasion. Unfortunately, it was marred by the absence of the survivors.

Prior to the ceremony, the ship owner Costa Crociere SpA sent a letter to the 4200 survivors saying that they would not be welcome. Costa justified its action by stating that the focus of the ceremony was on the dead not the living and that the small island could not accomodate that many visitors. Survivors suggest that it was more out of concern that disgruntled former passengers, many of whom are involved in lawsuits against Costa, would use the occasion to make their case to the media.

I sometimes think we should create an award for truly dumb crisis management moves. This would certainly rank way up there. Costa is being accused of condoning or possibly even ordering the actions that led to the wreck. Keeping survivors away from a commemorative ceremony certainly does nothing to dispel the idea that you have something to hide.

Add to this the complete lack of sympathy in such an action. Survivors need closure. Talking with others who have shared your experience, shedding tears for the dead – these are therapeutic actions. Many survivors are still suffering survivor's guilt or are experiencing nightmares or other symptoms of traumatic stress disorder and could possibly have been helped by attending the ceremony.

Did Costa have options? Certainly: set up temporary housing, pay locals to provide lodging in private homes, charter flights and house people at other locations, provide a ship for lodging (well, maybe THAT wouldn't have been such a good idea!). Chances are that not all 4200 and their families would be there. But even if they were, so what?

I've pointed out many times that showing sympathy for the victims of your actions is critical to succesful crisis management. Unfortunately, Costa obviously hasn't got the message.

Oil tanker collision reinforces rapid response

Photo: Pamela J Boehland, U.S. Coast Guard / SF

A near miss on another oil spill in our beautiful Bay as an empty oil tanker scraped one of the fenders protecting a tower of the Bay Bridge on Monday. Fortunately, the hull was not ruptured and no contamination took place.

What was interesting was the rapid reaction from all the agencies responsible for dealing with this type of event. Federal, state and local resources were dispatched immediately to the scene to make sure that any potential spill was contained. This is in stark contrast to the Cosco Busan incident in 2007 that spilled 53,000 gallons of bunker fuel into the Bay. All agencies were roundly critized for a slow and uncoordinated response.

There's nothing like a real event to test your plans and show up weaknesses. I can generally tell the level of experience of an emergency manager by his or her willingness to activate their response organization. People new to the profession wonder if they'll get into trouble for activating without a good enough reason. Experienced professionals know that if you even think you need to activate, you do it. It is easier to stand down an organization than to try to activate it after a crisis has gotten away from you.

We've also learned to take advantage of these false starts. You get to test notification systems and hazard assessment processes at a minimum. If it looks like you'll be standing down, run a short tabletop exercise based on "what if this had been worse" scenarios. One of my favorites was to take a worse case scenario and ask my team to identify what would have been our top three operational priorities, a twenty minute or so exercise that paid tremendous dividends in real events.

So the next time you're unsure about activating your team, do it!

Aurora Theater reopening a crisis management failure

The Aurora Theater that was the scene of last year's tragic shootings is scheduled to reopen on January 18th. As part of the reopening ceremonies, Cinemark is hosting a "special evening of remembrance" the night prior and has invited the families of the shooting victims to attend. The reopening is supported by the majority of the community and will be attended by the mayor and the governor of Colorado. Grief counselors will be on hand. So why is this a failure of crisis management?

It's a question of perception, as are most crisis management problems.

Victims' families claim that this is the first they have heard directly from Cinemark. The company did offer to pay for funeral expenses not covered by the Crime Victim's Compensation Fund but did this through contact with the funeral homes, not the victims' families. Cinemark has made no apology nor offered any condolences to the victims' families.

Contrast this with the actions of Warner Brothers and others associated with the movie that was playing during the shooting. Warner issued a statement of condolence and cancelled several gala events associated with the movie, revised it's marketing campaign, and promised a substantial donation to Colorado's Community First Foundation. The director, cast and crew sent condolences and the star, Christian Bale, privately visited the survivors in hospital.

By failing to issue a formal statement immediately empathizing with the victims and their families, probably on the advice of attorneys fearing a lawsuit, Cinemark committed a classic crisis management blunder. They then made things worse by creating the appearance of using the victim's families to gain publicity of for the reopening. The timing of the invitation to the families, two days after Christmas, was thoughtless and the method, email, insulting.

Cinemark's failure is reminder that you're never wrong in expressing sympathy. Do it immediately and do it publicly. You don't have to make statements that can come back to haunt you in court but staying silent could cost you dearly in the court of public opinion. Potential jurors read papers and listen to the news.

The triumph of evil? Not on our watch.

My apologies for being missing in action for so long. It's been a hectic few weeks between teaching a graduate class in Portland and doing keynote speeches at the All-hazards Summits sponsored by Emergency Management magazine. But that's merely an excuse – I've actually been suffering from an uncharacteristic bout of writer's block.

I don't really believe in writer's block – if I'm having trouble writing it's usually because I haven't fully developed an idea or, more likely, I'm just being lazy and not getting started. But this has been different. I've been wrestling with my feelings about the recent shootings in Oregon and Connecticut and trying to think of something to add to a discussion that has been getting way too emotional and too focused on the issue of gun control. In the end, I just can't find the words.

However, I take heart from the season. Most religions of which I am aware hold major celebrations at this time of year. Despite their different beliefs, if you look closely, the theme is the same – the triumph of light over darkness. For centuries the midwinter feast has celebrated the belief that even in the deepest winter there will be a spring and that somehow life will go on. People are never more at their best than when confronted by disaster. You can either believe that in your heart or read the research – it's true either way.

So wherever you fall in the debates that are taking place right now, don't let the actions of two disturbed men obscure the fact that there are millions of people around the world doing something to make it a better place. Be one of them – do an act of kindness, give to a charity, help someone who needs it, support a cause you believe in. Remember the quote attributed to Edmund Burke, "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."

Crisis communications: Walmart gets it right.

It's always easy to find examples of poor crisis communications. Some organizations seem to go out of their way to appear deceptive and unsympathetic. It's nice to see someone do it right for a change.

This past Sunday, two Walmart employees and a contract security officer were involved in an altercation with an alleged shoplifter who died, possibly as the result of a chokehold applied by the security officer. Walmart spokesperson Diana Gee made the following statement:

No amount of merchandise
is worth someone’s life. Associates are
trained to disengage from situations that would put themselves or others at
risk. This is truly a sad
situation. We don’t know all of the facts right now. We’re in the
process of working with law enforcement to determine all of the facts and
cooperating and providing any information we have to assist in the
investigation.

Let's break this down a bit: 

• No amount of merchandise is worth someone’s life. – Shows empathy with the victim
• Associates are trained to disengage from situations that would put themselves or others at risk – Staff are trained to avoid these situations; leaves open the possibility that the employees were acting outside the scope of their duties.
• This is truly a sad situation.- Reiterates empathy for the victim.
• We don’t know all of the facts right now.- No speculation, no blaming the victim, no overt attempt to protect the company.
• We’re in the process of working with law enforcement to determine all of the facts and cooperating and providing any information we have to assist in the investigation.- Cooperation with authorities, commitment to the facts.

This statement is right out of the crisis management playbook and it works. There is no speculation, no attempt to assign responsibility, no language obviously designed to protect the company. Instead we are presented with empathy and a firm commitment to finding the facts.

Walmart also followed its statement with swift action: the two employees have been suspended with pay pending the outcome of the investigation and the contract officer will no longer be providing services to the store. This combination of immediate, thoughtful action and straight talk is a winner when dealing with crisis.

Thanks to the good folks at the Consumerist for bringing this incident to my attention.