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Don’t Let The Bad Guys Win: Reflections on Sept 11th

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

In a marvelous bit of irony, on this day fourteen years ago I was in Salt Lake City attending a course on protecting critical infrastructure from terrorist attack when I heard about the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. I knew that the event was significant but I had no idea how much my world was about to change.

This is a day for remembrance, for honoring those who fell and those who still suffer the effects of their selfless service in those dark days. But I think we do them a disservice by not also taking a harsh look at the results of that day and asking. “Is this truly who we are?”

One of the most fundamental lessons we learned from the terrorist attacks of the 70’s was that terrorists do not expect to win through their attacks. They don’t need to. Instead, their goal is to destabilize through fear – to make the government react so harshly to the threat of terrorism that eventually the citizens of the country under attack will rise up against the government themselves.

And it’s working.

Consider some the results of that single incident:

We have replaced a flawed intelligence system with an intelligence bureaucracy so bloated that no one can say how much it costs, how many people are employed in it, or how effective it is. Worse, we can’t say how many agencies duplicate work done by others or identify intelligence gaps.
We have spent billions on protective equipment without a strategy that identifies what equipment is needed or how we will sustain the capacity we build.
We have accepted inconveniences in travel created by a system that is largely just theater with little real protective benefit.
We have treated our own citizens as hostile and subversive simply because they share or appear to share common customs and faith with our enemies. Even further, we routinely spy on our own citizens, no matter what their faith.
We have allowed our own laws and constitutional safeguards to be subverted in the name of the war on terrorism, allowing people to be held indefinitely without trial and condoning the use of torture.

From where I stand, it sure looks like we’re giving up a lot in fear of an enemy that really has only a limited capacity to hurt us. There is a war taking place but it’s not being fought just on the battlefields of the Middle East. If we lose sight of our values, if we abrogate our core beliefs, then the bad guys win. If we allow that to happen, we break faith with all those who fell on September 11^th.

Avenging One Dead Lion Doesn’t Solve The Problem

Posted on August 5, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

One the most glaring weaknesses of the Internet is how mob psychology can focus on symptoms rather than solutions. We see yet another glaring example of this with the virtual fury unleashed on the Minnesota dentist accused of illegally killing a popular lion in Zimbabwe.

By now almost everyone is familiar with the story: Walter Palmer paid $50,000 to hunt a lion, alleged participated in luring the lion out of a protected game park onto private land, botched the kill with a bow or crossbow, killed the lion some forty hours later with a rifle, and attempted to destroy the tracking tag on the body.

As result of the furor on the Internet, Palmer has been forced to close his practice, take down his website, and go into hiding because of death threats. Over 150,000 people have written the White House demanding he be extradited to Zimbabwe. What’s significant, though, is that all this happened prior to Palmer being charged with a crime. He has committed no crime under US law and it is only with the last few days that Zimbabwe has begun formal extradition proceedings. What happened to the presumption of innocence that underpins our system of jurisprudence?

The larger issue, however, is that Walter Palmer is a distraction that in the long run doesn’t really matter. His reputation and means of livelihood have been taken away and he will be forced into a lengthy legal battle over extradition with the possibility of incarceration in a country not known for its commitment to human rights. He will soon be forgotten.

But here’s the problem ignored by the Internet mob: according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, 600 lions are killed legally by trophy hunters each year, equating to roughly 2% of the dwindling lion population of about 30,000, an unsustainable rate. The International Fund for Animal Welfare reported that during the period 1999 to 2008, 64% of the “trophies” from those kills were brought home by Americans.

How could we fix this? The US Fish and Wildlife Service currently lists African lions as “threatened” which allows the trade in lion trophies to continue. Changing that designation to “endangered” would ban any such importation. The Service proposed such a change in October but to date nothing has been done.

In the great scheme of life, destroying one hunter who happened to get caught doesn’t do much other than draw temporary attention to the problem. It probably won't be much of a deterrent to other trophy hunters. If you’re serious about stopping the trophy trade, take action. Write your elected representatives and push for a change in the US Fish and Wildlife designation and a ban on the trophy trade. It’s a bit more work than posting a snarky comment on Facebook but it’s how you make a difference.

It’s the end of the world – again!

Posted on July 22, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

There have been a number of dire predictions making the rounds on the Internet over the past few days. First there was an excellent article in the New Yorker entitled The Really Big One that talks about a major earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone. Then there were predictions from the National Weather Service that what might be the worst El Niño effect in twenty years is forming in the Pacific and we may be in for a winter of destructive floods. Added to this mix was the prediction that we would experience a “mini ice age” in 2030. And now today comes the prediction that we are due for a massive earthquake on the Hayward fault “any day now.”

If you’re not feeling apprehensive, you’re not paying attention. We’re all going to die!

Well, while it’s certainly true we’re all going to die, these predictions are being blown out of proportion to make it appear that the end of the world is just around the corner. Here are the facts:

The Cascade subduction zone scenario is indeed real and a truly frightening one. That’s why government agencies at all levels have been planning for it for at least the past twenty years. There’s still a lot to do and it will probably be inadequate but this is not a new threat.
It does appear that this will be a strong El Niño year and there will be floods. The last strong El Niño period saw almost every county in California declared a disaster area. But we know it’s coming and we have considerable experiencing in California with flood fighting. It’s not going to be fun but we’ll get through it.
The mini ice age? This is sparked by something called the “Maunder Minimum”, a period of reduced solar activity in the 17^th Century that coincided with the Little Ice Age. However, the Little Ice Age began before and ended after the Maunder Minimum and the expected drop in temperature will be negligible given our present level of global warning, something on the order of 0.1 degree Celsius.
According to the US Geological Survey, the recent 4.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault was a standalone event and not a precursor to a larger temblor. However, there is a 31% chance of a major earthquake on the fault within the next 30 years. This is not a new threat: my colleagues and I have been telling you this for years. And, geologically speaking, it is due “any minute now.”

Bottom line, most of these threats are real and could occur at any moment but that is the nature of disasters. There is no reason to be more frightened of them today than you were yesterday. What you can do is prepare and not just for these large events but for disaster in general. You know the drill: make plan, build a kit, and get the facts.

Maybe today you’ll actually listen and do something about it.

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Live Life to the Fullest – A Tail From the Dog Park

Posted on July 1, 2015September 1, 2025 by Lucien Canton | Posted in Tails From The Dog Park, WeblogsLeave a Comment

Last week we had to say good bye to another of our good friends at the dog park, Buster the Beagle, affectionately known to his friends as Little B. Sad as we are at his passing, we take comfort in the fact that Buster lived a full life, having reached the grand age of 17. This achievement is even more remarkable when one hears Buster’s story and realizes he should have been dead years ago.

When Geoff, Buster’s guardian of many years, first met him, Buster was in the possession of a rather unpleasant farmer who told Geoff tersely, “You want this dog? If not, I’m going to take him out and shoot him.” One look at Buster and Geoff knew he couldn’t let that happen.

Sometime later, during an examination by his vet, Geoff found the reason why Buster favored one of his rear legs. It seems someone had shot at him in the past and Buster had shotgun pellets embedded in his leg. The pellets couldn’t be removed, leaving Buster with a permanent limp and trouble with arthritis in his later years.

This early trauma never phased Buster. Even as health issues slowed him in his final years, he never missed an opportunity to go for a walk and or to visit with his friends at the dog park. Every time we thought the end was near, he would rebound and surprise us. We thought he would go on forever.

Buster reminds us that life is what we make of it. His early mistreatment didn’t stop him from finding and loving his best friend and his new family. His limp didn’t stop him from acting like a puppy on occasion. And, while old age slowed him a bit, it didn’t diminish the joy he felt in visiting his friends at the dog park. We will miss Buster but will remember his lesson that quality of life is more important than mere longevity.

A Flooded Zoo Can Pose A Real Challenge to Responders

Posted on June 15, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

Emergency managers have to deal with many unusual problems during a disaster. Floods in particular can cause some very strange situations when things that should remain buried suddenly surface. But a recent flood in Tbilisi, Georgia, posed a problem that, while not necessarily unique, is certainly uncommon.

Torrential rains over the weekend caused a landslide that blocked a local stream. The backed up water eventually broke through, causing the Vere River to overflow and flood the Tbilisi Zoo which is situated along the banks of the river. While many of the animals drowned, a number managed to escape, including a hippopotamus that swam out of its enclosure and was founding eating the leaves of trees in the central Heroes’ Square. Also escaped were a number of bears, lions, tigers, jaguars and wolves. The hippopotamus was recovered after being shot with a tranquilizer dart but a number of the other animals were reportedly shot by police. In all, four lions, three tigers and two jaguars were either drowned or shot while four lions, three tigers, and one jaguar are still missing.

This poses an interesting problem for responders. While no one disputes the need to shoot an animal if it is attacking, how do you balance the competing interests of public safety and the need to recover as many animals as possible? Do you impose a shoot-on-site order? What happens if the animal is not threatening but is hampering rescue efforts by its presence in the area? What message do you send the public?

It’s an interesting problem. Have you checked your zoo’s emergency plans lately?

Disaster Movies as Teaching Tools

Posted on June 5, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

By now you’ve probably heard about the new disaster movie, San Andreas, which is looking like a box office smash. I haven’t seen it yet, but my son has and he said he had a good laugh. I’m afraid he’s picked up some of my bad habits: I tend to laugh at rather inappropriate parts of disaster movies, which is why none of my friends invite me to see one. I can’t help it. Some of the situations are so implausible and the science behind them is usually sadly lacking.

Unfortunately, as much as I giggle at disaster movies there are those who take them way too seriously and actually believe the nonsense presented on the screen. So I was very impressed by my colleagues at the San Francisco Department of Emergency Management turning this around by using the movie as an opportunity to engage the public.

SFDEM hosted a special screening of the movie recently and followed it up with a question and answer session from a panel of experts. The group did more than just debunk some of the more glaring scientific howlers in the movie, though. They used elements of the film to highlight positive lessons on earthquake preparedness such as:

The use of “Duck, cover, and hold”
Family reunification plans and out of area contacts
Prior training in first aid
Tsunami warning signs

The screening was a success, by all accounts and, more importantly, garnered a fair bit of media coverage, extending the reach of the message. By being proactive instead of waiting for media or public enquiries, SFDEM reached a lot of people with a message that was both reassuring and emphasized the importance of preparedness. SFDEM probably just saved a lot of lives in the next earthquake – and had fun doing it!

Terrorism Theater: The Public Is Not The Threat

Posted on May 27, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

If you’ve been reading my blog for any length of time, you’ll know I have very little patience with what security technologist Bruce Schneier calls “terrorism theater”. Terrorism theater is creating security safeguards that do little more than make the public feel safer and cover someone’s backside while providing very little real benefit. This costs us millions each year and diverts our efforts from areas where we truly do need safeguards. The epitome of terrorism theater is airport security.

Two incidents in today’s news provide examples of this craziness. A Spirit Airlines flight attendant is in hot water after having pictures taken of her posing sitting in the well of a jet engine in front of the turbine blades and posting them to Facebook. The problem? The tarmac area is restricted and it’s unclear if she and the photographer had the necessary clearance to be there. It’s also a pretty dumb idea to sit in front of an engine of a plane that’s in the process of boarding. It's even dumber to post pictures on your Facebook page that have the potential to get you fired, but these are secondary issues.

The second incident is more serious. Three baggage handlers at Oakland International Airport have been arrested for using their access badges to move suitcases full of marijuana from their unsecured work area into the post-screening area and passing them to couriers who then boarded outbound aircraft. Airport authorities acknowledge that while passengers and flight crews are screened, there are thousands of employees across the country who can approach an aircraft with unscreened bags.

Part of risk analysis is anticipating foreseeable threats. The idea that a terrorist could gain access to an aircraft by infiltrating ground crews or concessionaires certainly falls into this category, yet this issue has not been addressed with the same vigor as passenger screening. Oakland has implemented bag limitations for workers and stepped up video surveillance and random screening over the past few years but these measures didn’t seem to deter the three baggage handlers.

It’s too easy to say that screening all workers at an airport is an impossible task. But we said the same about screening passengers and baggage, yet we’re doing it daily. It’s been fourteen years since September 11^th and the fact that we have not anticipated and solved this problem is unconscionable. We need to move beyond considering the public as the main threat and cease being complacent about the people and areas behind the security barriers. We need to stop thinking about the last attack and focus on system vulnerabilities, wherever they may be. To do otherwise borders on the criminal.

The Last Musketeer

Posted on May 12, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

One of the gifts I have been given in life is the friendship of some remarkable people who have been kind enough to share their wisdom with me. One of the most remarkable was my friend and mentor, Roy Kite, who died last Friday.

I first met Roy when I was assigned to FEMA as a military reservist in 1989, shortly before the Loma Prieta earthquake. As my division director, Roy activated me during the earthquake and I worked for him for a time as a military officer and then a civilian reservist. He also introduced me to a man who would become one of my best friends, the late Ken Chin. At the end of my tour, Roy looked at me and said quietly, “You know, I have an opening in my division. You should think about applying for it.”

I decided to accept Roy’s invitation and joined FEMA in 1990, a decision that changed not only my profession but my life. Roy became not only my friend but my mentor as well. He helped guide my career and provided me with opportunities to grow as an emergency manager. He taught me some personal lessons as well. Whenever things would get too much for me, I’d seek his counsel. Roy had the gift of remaining calm in any crisis. No matter how angry he got, I never in all our time together heard him raise his voice, use profanity, or berate a subordinate. He taught me the true meaning of “grace under pressure”.

Over the years, I came became part of a very special team – Roy served as the Federal Coordinating Officer, Ken handled administration and logistics, and I was responsible for planning and operations. I’ve lost count of the many disasters we worked together but I think it was something in the neighborhood of fourteen, both large and small. There was a special bond between the three of us and even after we left FEMA we remained close. The last time I saw Roy was at Ken’s funeral, where we toasted our friend and reminisced about “the good old days”.

In my book, I quoted Sir Isaac Newton’s comment about seeing further because he stood on the shoulders of giants. Without a doubt, Roy Kite was one of the giants in my life and I owe him more than I can ever repay. I shall miss him greatly.

Emergency Planners Are The Same The World Over

Posted on April 29, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

To many in the United States, the recent earthquake in Nepal was a news item that generated momentary sympathy but didn’t have much impact. It didn’t even make the front page of the San Francisco Chronicle, although the death of a single American climber did on the day after the temblor. As the days go on, the story will eventually fade away like so many others. After all, Nepal is a long way off and not a major player on the world stage.

But not for me.

In 2003, my last active duty assignment was to a civil affairs team reviewing US military contingency plans for responding to an earthquake in Nepal. As the subject matter expert on earthquake planning, I met with a number of local scientists, government officials, and representatives of both public and private response organizations in Kathmandu and the surrounding area.

Emergency managers are the same the world over. The people I met in Nepal were as dedicated and professional as any others I have met and their seismologists are among the best in the world. We also shared the same frustrations over lack of resources and support for disaster planning. What was different was the environment in which we operated.

Imagine that 90% of your population lived in rural areas so remote that even helicopters had trouble getting in. Imagine that all your relief supplies had to be carried in on your back or using pack animals. Imagine a world where communications systems we take for granted don’t work or work sporadically, so you have little information on which to prioritize your relief efforts.

Take it a bit further. Kathmandu is in many ways an urbane and cosmopolitan city. But it is also an ancient one built of mud bricks, where you sometimes have to turn sideways to move from one neighborhood to another. At the time of my visit, building codes were non-existent and there was resistance to their implementation. Response resources are extremely limited. Add to this a political situation that has left the country without any real leadership for years, resulting in a lack of prioritization for emergency planning.

This is the reality for the emergency planners in Nepal.

The good news is that help is coming from all over the world. The bad news is that there is little infrastructure available to manage the flood of relief supplies and workers, a paradox that we all face in a disaster. The weeks and months ahead will be tough ones for my colleagues in Nepal and they’ll need all the support we can give them.

Energy Conservation and Cognitive Dissonance

Posted on April 23, 2015 by Lucien Canton | Posted in WeblogsLeave a Comment

One of the terms that sticks with me from my college psychology classes is “cognitive dissonance.” Cognitive dissonance is the stress created when you try to hold two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values simultaneously, or are given information that conflicts with your existing beliefs, ideas or values. I think I’m so fond of the term because anyone who has ever worked for the government is confronted with this on a daily basis.

Take the latest word from the California Public Utilities Commission. It seems our efforts at energy conservation have been so effective that some folks are actually paying less than what it costs to produce the little electricity they use. In effect, they are being subsidized by the large consumers of electrical power.

To address this inequality, the PUC is proposing a new rate structure that will set a fixed monthly minimum charge and eliminate multiple rate tiers. The proposal also includes time-of-use rates where rates would rise with demand. This would return the rate structure to something similar to what it was before the energy crisis in 2000-2001.

The proposal sounds fair on paper until one considers the actual impact. Consumers who have implemented energy-efficient practices will see rates increase while heavy users will see their rates decrease. Incentives for conservation via rate tiers would be eliminated, potentially harming the burgeoning solar power industry and slowing the transition to clean energy.

It doesn’t help that public trust in the PUC is at an all-time low due to reports of mismanagement, lack of leadership, and cozy relationships with the utilities the PUC is supposed to oversee. Not surprisingly, those same utilities are strongly in favor of the new rate structure.

So this is a classic case of cognitive dissonance: encourage conservation on the one hand but reward those who don’t conserve on the other. Is your head hurting yet?