Volcanic Ash Disrupts European Airspace
Here's an example of the type of cascading effect that is hard to predict when you're doing a risk analysis. The eruption of a volcano in Iceland created an ash plume somewhere between 20,000 to 36,000 feet in height very close to the Atlantic air routes that link the United States and Europe. The drifting cloud forced closures of airports in England, Ireland and France resulting in thousands of flights being grounded indefinitely.
Think beyond just the many travelers that have been affected by this. Just as on 9/11, this type of mass grounding will have an impact on air cargo, mail, and shipping.
How do you predict his sort of thing? Well, you don't. However, since we do have the example of 9/11 and now the volcano at Eyjafjallajokull, we can predict that a disruption to supply chain can and will occur. Are you ready?