Drought, climate change, and slow-onset disasters
We spend a lot of our time planning for the sudden, unexpected event. These are the events that leave you in little doubt that they are significant – major floods, earthquakes, fires, etc. But what about the slow-onset events that sneak up on you? These are less easy to identify. It's hard to recognize the point at which a problem becomes an emergency and then crosses the line into disaster.
The problem with slow-onset disasters is that they usually slip under the emergency services radar. They typically begin as someone else's problem and emergency services are not engaged until the situation becomes a crisis. Consequently, we spend a lot of time determining who owns the problem and who should head the crisis management team.
Case in point is the worsening drought situation in the United States. The most recent US Drought Monitor shows roughly half of the United States in a state of drought and almost a third in the highest category, exceptional drought.
The problem is not confined to the United States. A 2010 study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed worsening conditions worldwide over the next 30 years. The author of the study, Aiguo Dai, says:
“We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community. If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous.”
Drought is the classic slow-onset disaster and mitigating its effects require measures that take time to put in place. If we are to be effective planners, we need to start thinking about this problem now in strategic, long-range terms. Drought does not require first responders until the situation has truly deteriorated to a crisis. And by then it will be too little, too late.